Population Viability Analysis Calculator

Assess population extinction risk using Monte Carlo simulations with environmental and demographic stochasticity.

Population Parameters

Initial Population (N0)

Carrying Capacity (K)

Mean Growth Rate (r)

Growth Variance (sigma)

Extinction Threshold

Time Horizon (years)

Catastrophe Probability

Catastrophe Impact

Fraction of population lost

Number of Simulations

Model: Stochastic logistic growth with environmental variance, demographic stochasticity, and catastrophes.

Low Risk

2.0%

Extinction Probability

98.0%

Survival Probability

Extinctions

Out of 100 simulations

Mean Time to Extinction

For extinct populations

68.5 years

Median Extinction Time

50th percentile

91 years

Mean Final Population161

Final Pop Range27 - 407

Mean Minimum Population67

Quasi-extinction Rate7.75%

Estimated Minimum Viable Population

100

Approximate population needed for <5% extinction risk